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EMEA | UKRAINE
Ukraine Debt Rating Cut by Fitch as Foreign Funding Squeezed | Bloomberg News
With yields approaching 10 percent, Ukraine “effectively” has no access to international bond markets, according to Fitch. That puts the government’s plan to raise $4 billion in international bond markets in 2014 at risk, it said.
Ukraine is seeking to sign an association agreement with the European Union at a Nov. 28-29 summit, a step that’s angered Russia and triggered threats of trade blockages. The deal is not certain, with the 28-member bloc seeking the release of jailed ex-Premier Yuliya Tymoshenko, whose conviction it’s described as selective justice.
“If Ukraine fails to sign the” agreement with the EU, “they face a real risk of a full-blown economic and financial crisis,” Tim Ash, chief emerging-market economist at Standard Bank Group Ltd. in London, said by e-mail. “It’s struggling to finance twin deficits in an increasingly challenging global financing environment. Signing the agreement is the only way out for Yanukovych.”
EMEA | TURKEY
Goldman Sees Lira Nearing Yapi Kredi Danger Zone: Turkey Credit | Bloomberg News
The lira will fall to 2.4 per dollar in 12 months, about 15 percent from yesterday’s rate, a Goldman Sachs report on Nov. 4 said. Yapi Kredi Chief Financial Officer Marco Iannaccone said the same day a drop of 20 percent to 30 percent would “significantly impair corporates’ ability to service” their foreign-exchange debt. About 40 percent of business lending in Turkey is in foreign currencies, compared with 24 percent in Poland and 50 percent in Hungary.
FRI. 8 NOV. 2013
Basri Sees Rupiah Back to 2009 Levels After QE Taper | Jakarta Globe
Indonesia’s rupiah and bond yields will return to levels seen in 2009 after the Federal Reserve cuts stimulus that has buoyed emerging-market assets, Finance Minister Chatib Basri said. This corresponds to 10,396 per dollar and 11.15 percent 10-year bond yield in 2009, compared with 11,408 and 7.93 percent today, respectively.
THU. 7 NOV. 2013
Foreign investors bought a net KRW5.3 trillion of listed stocks and sold a net KRW2.5 trillion of listed bonds in October for a net investment of KRW2.8 trillion for the month.
China's Ministry of Finance is set to issue 10 billion yuan, or over 1.6 billion US dollars, of renminbi-denominated government bonds in Hong Kong on November 21st. That brings the total amount of government bonds issued in Hong Kong so far this year to 23 billion yuan.
WED. 6 NOV. 2013
EMFI ASSET CLASS
"The concern and the panic over tapering was probably overplayed," said Pierre-Yves Bareau, chief investment officer for emerging-market debt at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. "Markets have come back to a more rational stance." Mr. Bareau said his firm has invested in a wide range of emerging-market assets in the wake of the summer's selloff, including longer-dated sovereign debt and currencies. The foreign-exchange strategy, he said, has now run its course, and his firm is increasing its exposure to corporate bonds instead."When the market started bouncing back, most of the value has been in Latin America," said Zara Kazaryan, a bond-fund manager at Threadneedle Investments in London. Ms. Kazaryan said her fund will seek to increase its positions in Latin American corporate debt this year, and will also consider adding high-yield bonds from across all emerging markets. As long as U.S. Treasury yields don't move higher, she said, emerging-market bonds will continue to recover.
"There is a danger that the selloff we saw in the summer was just stage one of a much wider asset-price deflation in the emerging markets," said Brendan Brown, head of economic research at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities International. Dr. Brown reckons Chinese monetary tightening or the cooling of real-estate bubbles in countries such as Brazil or India could trigger a fall in global emerging-market asset prices.
"The attractiveness of the emerging markets was twofold: liquidity and fundamentals. I think what we are going to find out is, it was more about liquidity than improving fundamentals," said Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman. "We're close to peak liquidity."
"Right now people want to understand where the U.S. story is going, so until the price-maker [the U.S.] gets its act together, we're going to move with the ebb and flow of the herd mentality," said Robert Abad, an emerging-markets fixed-income portfolio manager at Western Asset. He said a lot of short-term investors left emerging markets in the summer and it is mostly those with longer-term outlooks that are staying put and adding to their holdings.
TUE. 5 NOV. 2013
CHINA | SOUTH AFRICA | CENTRAL BANKS
South Africa to invest in China bonds | Financial Times - November 5, 2013 2:52 pm
SARB to invest $1.5bn in Chinese bonds.
Demand strong for Dim Sum bonds | Vancouver Sun
British Columbia becomes first foreign government to issue dim sum bond, selling 2.5 billion yuan ($428 million Cdn) of Chinese bonds, the biggest issue of the securities outside of Asia. The Dim Sum bond sale may have less to do with raising funds and be more about enhancing the province's profile in East Asia, said Jonathan Lemco, senior sovereign-debt analyst at Vanguard Group Inc.
Taiwan Five-Year Bonds Snap Three-Day Decline as Inflation Slows | Bloomberg News
There’s “no urgency” for policy makers to raise interest rates as price pressures ease, Frances Cheung, a senior strategist in Hong Kong at Credit Agricole CIB.
26 OCT. 2013
Asian Issuers: Timing it right | IFR Asia
Asia will have to cope with shifting fund flows in the months to come. At another turbulent time for the world’s financing markets, flexibility is again proving to be an invaluable asset.
1 OCT. 2013
Emerging markets issued $23.6bn of sovereign debt in September. About $7.2bn was Russian debt, $3.9bn was Mexican debt and $3.8bn was China’s. Armenia also held its first international debt auction, issuing $690mn of so-called “Kardashian bonds”.
We scan the most important stories of the day - and highlight the "gist" (in some cases, paraphrase) - to save you time and mouse clicks.
This page is updated 6pm (Hong Kong time).