Executive summary: Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities.
This week in trade ideas, we turn long EUR-USD on a strategic basis and stay engaged in long SPX and VIX where correlations recently moved strongly positive. We add long SGD-CNH to our watchlist.
Monday: Markets will begin the week with US reports on core PCE deflator as well as consumer income and spending. Colombia’s BanRep meets.
Tuesday brings Trump’s State of the Union address, New Zealand trade, Japan retail sales, Eurozone GDP, German CPI and a Catalan parliamentary vote. In EM, we have Mexican GDP and the Hungary's MNB.
Wednesday features the Fed FOMC meeting as well as BOJ minutes, Australian quarterly CPI, Eurozone CPI as well as the US Treasury's quarterly refunding statement. In EM, China NBS PMIs and Taiwan GDP will be released.
Thursday has PMI releases (including Japan, China Caixin, Germany and US ISM). In EM, the Czech CNB and Chilean BCCh will decide on rates and India presents it budget.
Friday rounds out the week with US jobs and UMich sentiment.
During the week, tech names Facebook, Microsoft and Paypal report earnings on Wednesday, while Apple, Alphabet, Amazon and Alibaba are up on Thursday.
Visual of the Week: