Executive summary: Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities.
This week in trade ideas, we are tactically long S&P volatility and short EUR-JPY. On a strategic basis, we are long German DAX and Malaysian equities, while short Brazilian stocks and US Treasuries.
Monday: Markets will begin the week digesting weekend events in Washington (government shutdown talks), Germany (SPD convention) and possibly Oman (OPEC-Russia meeting).
Tuesday brings the BOJ meeting and outlook report, Philippines GDP and Round Six of Nafta talks.
Wednesday features UK jobs data, Eurozone PMIs and a Brazil court ruling on ex-President Lula’s corruption conviction.
Thursday has ECB, Norges Bank and Bank Negara meetings as well as Korea GDP, Germany IFO and New Zealand CPI.
Friday rounds out the week with Japanese and Canadian inflation, US and UK GDP, US core PCE and a keynote closing speech by President Trump at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
During the week, on the corporate side, more visibility with respect to US corporate tax savings and capex plans are expected as 89 S&P 500-listed firms report Q4 earnings this week, including Netflix (Mon), J&J and P&G (Tue) as well as Intel and Caterpillar (Thu).
Full agenda – Week of 22 Jan-18:
Note: Calendar items are filed under the local day but specified times are in Singapore time zone unless otherwise noted.
EM: Thailand customs trade (1130am), Taiwan export orders (4pm), Mexico unemployment (10pm), Colombia trade (11pm)
Events: Brexit EU Withdrawal Bill moves to the House of Lords, US Sec Tillerson begins Europe tour (22-27 Jan, London on Mideast/DPRK/Ukraine, Paris, Davos, Warsaw), EZ finance ministers discuss Greece bailout (may shortlist candidates for ECB VP Constancio’s seat), IMF releases World Economic Outlook, US VP Pence visits Middle East (22-23 Jan, Egypt, Jordan, Israel)
Companies: UBS, Netflix, Halliburton, Axis Bank, Wynn Resorts earnings
DM: Japan BOJ MPC and Quarterly Outlook report (cons unch 0% 10yr JGB target, -0.1% policy balance rate), Japan all industry activity (1230pm), Japan machine tool orders-fin (2pm), Germany ZEW current situation/expectations survey (6pm), EZ consumer confidence-actual (11pm)
EM: Philippines GDP (10am), Singapore CPI (1pm), Taiwan IP (4pm), Brazil IBGE-15 CPI(7pm), Mexico IGAE econ activity (10pm), Russia IP, Nigeria CBN MPC (curr 14.00%), Poland unemployment, Argentina BCRA MPC (curr 28.00% 7dr), Argentina trade balance (3am)
Speakers: Riksbank Ingves in open hearing (4pm, on financial stability), Fed Evans
Events: World Economic Forum (23-26 Jan, Davos), Nafta sixth round talks (23-28 Jan, Montreal), ASEAN-India Summit (New Delhi), US Senate confirmation hearing for Fed nominee Goodfriend
Commodities: API weekly US oil inventory
Companies: Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, Verizon, Texas Instruments, Canadian National Railway, Capital One, Kimberly-Clark, State Street earnings
DM: Australia Westpac leading index (730am), Japan trade (750am), Japan PMI mfg (830am), France PMI (4pm), Germany PMI (430pm), EZ PMI (5pm), UK labour (530pm, prior 2.3% claimant count, 5.9k jobless claims change, 4.3% 3mth unemployment rate), US Markit PMI (1045pm), US existing home sales (11pm)
EM: Malaysia CPI (12pm), South Africa CPI (4pm), Czech confidence (4pm), Mexico bi-weekly CPI (10pm), Israel BOI MPC, Argentina economic activity (3am)
Speakers: Riksbank Floden (630pm)
Events: Brazil ex-pres. Lula da Silva corruption conviction hearing (question of whether it will be upheld)
Commodities: EIA crude oil inventory report
Companies: Novartis, Comcast, GE, United Technologies, Abbott Labs, General Dynamics, Las Vegas Sands, Ford Motor earnings
DM: New Zealand CPI (545am, Q4), Germany GfK consumer confid (3pm), Sweden economic tendency (4pm), Sweden unemployment rate (430pm), Sweden PPI (430pm), Norges Bank MPC (5pm), Germany IFO survey (5pm), ECB MPC (845pm, cons unch 0% refi rate, 0.25% marginal lending, -0.40% deposit facility), US wholesale inventories (930pm), Canada retails(930pm), US new home sales (11pm), US leading index (11pm)
EM: Korea GDP (7am), Malaysia BNM MPC (3pm, curr 3.00% OPR), Russia unemployment (9pm), Russia retails (9pm), Mexico retails (10pm)
Speakers: ECB Draghi press conference (930pm)
Events: Brazil ex-pres. Lula da Silva expected to launch bid for presidency (reported 15 Jan)
Companies: U.S. International Trade Commission rules on Bombardier/Boeing case. Intel, LVMH, 3M, Union Pacific, Caterpillar, Diageo, Starbucks, Celgene, Biogen, Raytheon, Nordea, SK Hynix earnings.
DM: Japan CPI (730am, prior 0.6% yoy national headline, 0.9% ex-fresh food), Japan BOJ minutes (750am), France consumer confidence (345pm), Sweden household spending (430pm), Sweden retails (430pm), UK GDP-actual (530pm), Canada CPI (930pm), US durable goods (930pm), US core PCE-Q4 actual (930pm)
EM: China industrial profits (930am), Singapore unemployment (1030am), Singapore IP (1pm), Brazil FDI (830pm)
Speakers: US Trump (keynote speech, Davos), BOJ Kuroda (Davos), IMF Lagarde (Davos), ECB Coeure (6pm), BOE Carney (10pm, Davos)
Events: Czech presidential runoff election (Pres. Milos Zeman vs pro-EU Jiri Drahos, 26-27 Jan), UN-backed Syria peace talks (Vienna), Argentina Macri meets Macron
Commodities: Baker Hughes US rig count (2am), ICE/CFTC weekly traders report (~2am/430am)
Companies: Abbvie, Honeywell, Nextera, Colgate-Palmolive, Fanuc earnings
Ratings: Azerbaijan (S&P)
Visual of the Week: