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    Nov 23, 2017

    Turkey - Time to give thanks and close TUR shorts

    A strategic short on Turkey has run its course. Time to take profit.


    Main drivers:

    Nov-17: Erdogan interference with CBRT independence (to hike in defense of the TRY), domestic fundamentals (CPI hit 9-year high), brief/sharp global risk-off correction

    Oct-17: EU-Turkey relations (Germany threatens to cut financing lifeline), US-Turkey relations deteriorated (embassy/visa issue)

    Sep-17: Kurdish referendum


    Re-engage if:

    1/ After technical rebound

    2/ Global risk aversion returns (on UST re-steepening post-US tax/fiscal breakthrough)

    3/ Meaningful signs of sharply slower economic activity

    4/ Economic sanctions threat gets louder




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