Our week ahead calendar is updated:
This week, we are especially watching:
Brexit meetings: PM May lunches with EC Juncker - amid calls from Tory Brexiteers for an ultimatum this week. Will the EC sympathize and judge 'that significant progress' has been made to move on to future trade relations? Or would this presage an awkward EU Summit next week?
Mueller probe: Traction may be gaining for more intense scrutiny on Trump and his campaign staff, including from Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) who over the weekend said the case is building for an obstruction of justice charge against Trump - citing Trump tweets. Will Trump rescind past tweets? Will someone tell Trump to stop tweeting (sell TWTR)? Will the Mueller probe distraction completely offset/overshadow any potential gains from tax cuts?
US Congress tax developments: 1/ Senate/House GOP will hammer out tax legislation differences in conference committee and 2/ Deadline for partial government shutdown approaches (most expect Dems to agree to kick the can a couple weeks). Before Christmas break, the GOP needs to reconcile differences in their two bills and pass a budget to avert a partial shutdown.
Australia RBA, retails and GDP: This is a maker-breaker week for those positioned in AUD idiosyncrasies. RBA Governor Lowe sounded sanguine on economic data and inflation a few weeks ago - will the retails/GDP data support his stance?
Germany SPD convention: Any arrangement with Merkel's CDU-CSU (whether grand coalition revival or minority govt support) will need to have buy-in from party members, which makes any sense of broad-based party support crucial.
GCC Summit: Watch any surprise breakthrough or softening of stance on the Qatar blockade.
Canada BOC: Markets will gauge if last Friday's jobs data was the game-changer that CAD and short rates repricing implied.
India RBI: The vast majority sees RBI on hold, which makes a surprise rate cut - as a small vocal minority has been calling - potentially rewarding for India equity longs (esp. banks).
Brazil BCB: Will the Copom signal its last rate cut of the cycle?
Trading bias this week:
Long: USD, SPX, Ibex, PLN, DAX, Sensex
Short: GBP, AUD (post-RBA), CAD (post-BOC), RUB
Watch: QAT, SEK, TRY, ZAR, Ibov, HUF, EGPT
Week Ahead poll: What theme/macro driver this week has the greatest/under-rated scope to drive global risk sentiment? Write-in if "Other".
US politics (Mueller probe, Congress tax, govt shutdown)
Europe politics (Brexit talks, SPD convention)
Econ data + cenbanks (NFP, RBA, RBI, BCB, BOC)
Non-fundamental technical factors
Vote here: