EM (Strate)gist gets to the gist of Emerging Markets FX, Bonds, Economics, Politics and Global Macro.

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    EMgist_admin
    Nov 24, 2017

    Oil - Brent ~$64 is tempting short into OPEC meet next week

    in EMgist Live

    WTI at $58.4 - highest since mid-2015

    Brent at $63.4 - highest in 2 weeks

    Spreads at <$5 - tightest in nearly 3mths


    Consensus expects output cut extension beyond March. And positioning is in agreement - with max longs according to CFTC data. Citi has warned (13 Nov-17) that if OPEC fails to extend output cuts, this would trigger massive unwinding of longs, collapse in prices.


    Brent-WTI premium has fallen, suggesting positioning for long-OPEC deal has been exhausted: Brent (top) vs WTI (mid) and spreads (bottom)


    2 comments
    0
    EMgist_admin
    Nov 24, 2017

    Latest CFTC positioning data for WTI - as of mid-Nov - is at 6mth highs:


    0
    EMgist_admin
    Nov 24, 2017

    Oil traders are more optimistic about near-term prices than they are for the long-term. Brent futures spreads are in deep backwardation:


    0
    2 comments

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