WTI at $58.4 - highest since mid-2015
Brent at $63.4 - highest in 2 weeks
Spreads at <$5 - tightest in nearly 3mths
Consensus expects output cut extension beyond March. And positioning is in agreement - with max longs according to CFTC data. Citi has warned (13 Nov-17) that if OPEC fails to extend output cuts, this would trigger massive unwinding of longs, collapse in prices.
Brent-WTI premium has fallen, suggesting positioning for long-OPEC deal has been exhausted: Brent (top) vs WTI (mid) and spreads (bottom)
Latest CFTC positioning data for WTI - as of mid-Nov - is at 6mth highs:
Oil traders are more optimistic about near-term prices than they are for the long-term. Brent futures spreads are in deep backwardation: