This will be a nail-biter. Average of last five polls show close election, separatists lead but would lose seats, ~1 short of legislative majority.
Markets seem to have priced-in separatists losing seats, so it would take renewed momentum for pro-Spain parties to lift the Ibex after outperformance over the past month.
Breakdown of voting intention by party - separatists to left, pro-Spain to the right
Ibex has outperformed EZ equity peers over the past month:
Bloomberg (5 Dec-17):
Catalan Separatists' Majority Under Threat in Critical Election
Polls show three pro-independence parties may cling to control
Campaign begins Tuesday across Catalonia before Dec. 21 ballot
The Catalan election campaign kicks off Tuesday with polls pointing to a finely balanced race in which turnout could play a crucial role.
Surveys show it’s basically a toss-up whether the separatists will cling on to their majority in the regional parliament with the latest projections putting the three pro-independence parties on the cusp of the 68 seats they’ll need to keep control of the legislature.
That sole centrist party - Catalunya en Comu - is the kingmaker. About them:
Catalunya en Comu-Podem: Electoral alliance formed by Catalunya en Comú and Podemos' Catalonia faction, Podem. This party may determine whether the separatist bloc gets another chance to govern. Catalunya en Comu is alone in the center ground, neither strongly for or against a break away from the rest of Spain. Instead, 43-year-old leader Xavier Domenech is calling on Spain to allow Catalans a vote on the issue, with opinion among his party colleagues divided on which side they should back if such a vote were to be held.