This will be a nail-biter. Average of last five polls show close election, separatists lead but would lose seats, ~1 short of legislative majority.
Markets seem to have priced-in separatists losing seats, so it would take renewed momentum for pro-Spain parties to lift the Ibex after outperformance over the past month.
Breakdown of voting intention by party - separatists to left, pro-Spain to the right
Ibex has outperformed EZ equity peers over the past month:
Bloomberg (5 Dec-17):
Catalan Separatists' Majority Under Threat in Critical Election
Polls show three pro-independence parties may cling to control
Campaign begins Tuesday across Catalonia before Dec. 21 ballot
The Catalan election campaign kicks off Tuesday with polls pointing to a finely balanced race in which turnout could play a crucial role.
Surveys show it’s basically a toss-up whether the separatists will cling on to their majority in the regional parliament with the latest projections putting the three pro-independence parties on the cusp of the 68 seats they’ll need to keep control of the legislature.