Bloomberg reports Temer and Maia agreed to hold pension reform vote 6-7 Dec. Markets read the news positively, even though passage of the pension reform bill is by no means a done deal. To be sure, the govt is investing on public service ads to sway the minds of the electorate - and the latest version of the bill has been diluted to save just 60% of what was previously envisaged. Temer is also known to be a political operator, but credentials seem to have weakened with every reform delay and since labour reform was passed earlier this year. Fair probability of passage - at this stage - is ~65%.
Risk-reward for tactical longs on Brazilian equities from here is just "fair" in my view - alpha upside/downside on a 65-35 probability mix are balanced. Bovespa could reach new highs (given anecdotally cleaner positioning compared to Q3) but it could also hit 3mth-lows in a "nay" (or indefinite delay) scenario. Ultimately the risk-reward depends on probability calculations (awaiting for what the political gurus at Eurasia Group say about this).
BRL is more likely to be a detractor than an enhancer of performance (but this is predicated on a tactical bullish dollar view on US tax cut passage).
Brazil indices (top, MSCI, Bovespa spot/futures), ETF (EWZ) vs Bovespa, BRL
Ref (Bloomberg, 24 Nov-17): Temer Said to Agree on Brazil Pension Vote With House Chief (1)
Plan is for debate on bill on Dec. 5, floor vote on Dec. 6-7
Bill needs 3/5 support from Lower House, Senate to become law
Brazil President Michel Temer on Wednesday struck a tentative deal with Lower House Speaker Rodrigo Maia to put the administration’s controversial pension bill to vote in early December, prompting local assets to rally.
The government’s proposed bill will be put up for debate in the Chamber of Deputies on Dec. 5 and to a floor vote on Dec. 6 or 7, according to a government official with direct knowledge of the matter. The administration will schedule the vote even though it does not yet have the necessary 308 votes for approval.