EMgist Live

Executive summary : Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities.  This week in trade ideas , we turn long EUR-USD on a strategic basis and stay engaged in long SPX and

AUD staged an impressive 4.4% rally over the past 1mth as an expected reflation on the back of US GOP tax cuts put commodities (and commodity currencies) back in favor... ...led by NZD, AUD and CAD.

GDP growth is set to exceed this year's target of 'around 6.5%', which should give comfort to authorities in their drive to de-lever the financial sector. Sacrificing some short-term growth stability

Two potential catalysts this week could stabilise, potentially reverse Qatar equities' -27% ytd loss: GCC Summit : Host Kuwait has invited Qatar's emir to the summit. Qatar stocks would benefit from

This will be a nail-biter. Average of last five polls show close election, separatists lead but would lose seats, ~1 short of legislative majority. Markets seem to have priced-in separatists losing se

Our week ahead calendar is updated: http://www.emgist.com/calendar This week, we are especially watching: Brexit meetings : PM May lunches with EC Juncker - amid calls from Tory Brexiteers for an ult

Vote on our Twitter poll - What's fair probability that the Senate GOP will come through with bill passage be close of Friday (US time)? https://twitter.com/EMgist/status/936396259924905985

Executive summary : Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities.  This week in trade ideas , we are tactically long S&P volatility and short EUR-JPY. On a strategic bas

We see increased signs that policymakers will be more open to modest RMB depreciation. We first signalled this in a Dec-18 EMgist Live post ( China: Weak g = RMB depreciation bias coming. Long SGD-C

Fri/8: New Zealand mfg (Q3, 545am), Japan BOP CAB, Japan GDP-fin (750am), Australia home loans (830am), Germany trade (3pm), France IP (345pm), UK IP/mfg prod (530pm), UK trade (530pm), Canada housing

Wed/6: Australia GDP (Q3, 830am, prior 0.8%/1.8% qoq/yoy), Germany factory orders (3pm), Switzerland CPI (415pm), US MBA mortgage apps (8pm), US ADP (915pm, prior 235k), BOC MPC (11pm, cons unch. 1.00

We received this punchy 2018 outlook rundown from Stray Reflections via KVP from Saxo Markets . We are not terribly huge fans of 'outlook pieces' but do recognize the value in the intellectual proc

Previously biased to re-engage in Ibex longs (worked well the last few weeks), until I saw this weekend poll result. No idea on credibility. Will have to deep-dive. Today, a Brussels court hears on Pu

What's on for Fri/1 Dec: Fri/1 Dec: New Zealand TOT index (545am), Japan jobless rate (730am), Japan CPI (730am, prior 0.7% national CPI yoy/0.7% ex-fresh food yoy), Japan capital spending (750am,

Note: Econ releases in local day unless otherwise specified. Any specified time for Econ releases/Speakers/Events is in Singapore (SG) time . Week of 15 Jan-18 : Mon/15: o DM: NZ food px (545am),

Wishing everyone a great start to their 2018! After a luxurious 3 weeks away from markets in Czech, Poland and Southern California, we’re back on line and in Singapore this weekend

Relatively slow news day: Thu/7: Australia trade (830am), Germany IP (3pm), Norway IP (3pm), Sweden avge house px (430pm), UK Halifax house px (430pm), Canada building permits (930pm) Speakers: Riks

Australia : Retails surprised stronger, now awaiting for RBA tone post-MPC. Previously Gov. Lowe was sanguine on current trajectory - noting that next move will be a hike and that the RBA are not too

Kospi is best performer today after last week's severe underperformance (partly US tech-related). Big anomaly in Japan stocks underperformance despite JPY slight net-weaker from just before last Frida

North Korea fired an ICBM in its first provocation since President Trump labeled Pyongyang a sponsor of terrorism this month. The missile was launched at 3:17 a.m. local time, reached an altitude of m