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Executive summary : Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities.  This week in trade ideas , we turn long EUR-USD on a strategic basis and stay engaged in long SPX and VIX where correlations recently moved strongly positive. We add long SGD-CNH to our watchlist. Monda

AUD staged an impressive 4.4% rally over the past 1mth as an expected reflation on the back of US GOP tax cuts put commodities (and commodity currencies) back in favor... ...led by NZD, AUD and CAD.

GDP growth is set to exceed this year's target of 'around 6.5%', which should give comfort to authorities in their drive to de-lever the financial sector. Sacrificing some short-term growth stability /momentum in the interest of long-term growth sustainability is likely to be reinforced during th

Two potential catalysts this week could stabilise, potentially reverse Qatar equities' -27% ytd loss: GCC Summit : Host Kuwait has invited Qatar's emir to the summit. Qatar stocks would benefit from any (surprise) signs of detente with the Saudi bloc . Whilst the Saudi-led economic boycott has take

This will be a nail-biter. Average of last five polls show close election, separatists lead but would lose seats, ~1 short of legislative majority. Markets seem to have priced-in separatists losing seats, so it would take renewed momentum for pro-Spain parties to lift the Ibex after outperformance o

Our week ahead calendar is updated: http://www.emgist.com/calendar This week, we are especially watching: Brexit meetings : PM May lunches with EC Juncker - amid calls from Tory Brexiteers for an ultimatum this week. Will the EC sympathize and judge 'that significant progress' has been made to mov

Vote on our Twitter poll - What's fair probability that the Senate GOP will come through with bill passage be close of Friday (US time)? https://twitter.com/EMgist/status/936396259924905985

Besides this morning's DPRK missile, we are watching: Wed/29: Japan retails (750am, prior 2.2% yoy), Sweden GDP (430pm, prior 1.3% qoq/3.1% wda yoy), UK mortgage approvals (530pm), EZ economic confidence (6pm), EZ consumer confidence-fin (6pm), US MBA mortgage applications, Germany CPI (9pm,

In China, analysts said investors are concerned about a slump in the country’s bond market spilling into equities as authorities step up a campaign to reduce leverage. The government’s message that Kweichow Moutai Co. shares were rising too fast has also sent ripples across the market. All China

A friend from business school - ex-BOK (now still in govt) - just asked my views on the KRW. Short reply: I have stable-bullish MT bias on KRW. Once we get next week’s BOK MPC out of the way there may be some tactical short opportunity if USD-KRW overshoots and USD rebounds on tax cuts . Gone are

Executive summary : Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities.  This week in trade ideas , we are tactically long S&P volatility and short EUR-JPY. On a strategic basis, we are long German DAX and Malaysian equities, while short Brazilian stocks and US Treasuries. M

We see increased signs that policymakers will be more open to modest RMB depreciation. We first signalled this in a Dec-18 EMgist Live post ( China: Weak g = RMB depreciation bias coming. Long SGD-CNH ), citing that a policy shift from quantity of growth to quality of growth is by design, dilu

Fri/8: New Zealand mfg (Q3, 545am), Japan BOP CAB, Japan GDP-fin (750am), Australia home loans (830am), Germany trade (3pm), France IP (345pm), UK IP/mfg prod (530pm), UK trade (530pm), Canada housing starts (915pm), US NFP (930pm, prior 261k), US unemployment (930pm, prior 4.1%), US AHE/AWE (930pm)