Key events in EM and DM: We collate various news sources to bring you a comprehensive look into the next 7 days.

Sources: Trading Economics, Investing.com, FT: beyondBRICs + various.

This week in EM (2-8 Dec)

• A slew of PMIs and CPIs typically dominate this first week of the month for both EM and DM. In Europe, manufacturing and services PMIs on Monday and Wednesday, respectively, will be digested before BOE and ECB policy meetings on Thursday. DM central bankers will speak on Monday (BOJ’s Kuroda, Fed’s Bernanke), Thursday (Fed’s Fisher), Friday (Fed’s Evans) and Saturday (BOJ’s Kuroda). High profile visits take place in Asia with GB PM Cameron in China, IMF’s Lagarde in Korea and US VP Biden on a week-long trip to Japan, Korea and China amid increased military tensions in the East China Sea.

• In Asia, CPI will be reported Monday in Korea, Thailand and Indonesia, which also reports its trade balance for October. In spite of a weaker Rupiah and BI rate hikes, we are unlikely to see a significant narrowing on the trade gap (prior deficit USD660m). Also on Monday, HSBC reports PMIs for Korea and India as well as the final manufacturing PMI (the Services equivalent is released Wednesday). The Chinese government releases its non-manufacturing PMI on Tuesday after having released its manufacturing PMI on Sunday (51.4, unchanged from October). Inflation data for Taiwan and Philippines – and final Q3 GDP for Korea – are reported on Thursday, which is a public holiday in Thailand (King’s Birthday), where anti-government protests show no signs of slowing. Malaysia reports October trade balance on Friday.

• In EMEA, HSBC PMI for Russia is released on Monday. On Tuesday, Turkey reports CPI (prior 7.7% y/y), while South Africa releases its current account (prior deficit ZAR216bn) ahead of this Friday’s FX reserves print. This Wednesday, Czech reports Q3 GDP (prior -1.3% y/y), as Poland’s National Bank meets (no change expected at 2.50%) and Russia releases November CPI. On Thursday, Hungary announces final Q3 GDP, Egypt’s central bank meets (no change expected at 8.75%) while November CPI is released for Ukraine, which is undergoing y-o-y deflation (October: -0.1% y/y).

• In LatAm, Mexico and Brazil release November PMI (both previously at 50.2) on Monday. The next day, Brazil announces Q3 GDP (survey: 2.5% y/y), while inflation is reported for Colombia on Thursday and Brazil and Chile on Friday (prior 5.84% and 1.5% y/y, respectively). Mexico’s Banxico meets on Friday and is expected to stand pat at 3.50% policy rate. 

 

2 Dec

KR: CPI (Nov, prior 0.7% y/y, survey 1.1%), HSBC PMI (Nov, prior 50.2)

CN: HSBC PMI final (Nov, prior 50.9, survey 50.5), GB PM Cameron visits CN to head trade delegation

ID: CPI (Nov, prior 8.32% y/y, survey 8.6%), Trade balance (Oct, prior -USD660m), PMI (Nov, prior 50.9)

IN: HSBC PMI (Nov, prior 49.6)

RU: HSBC PMI (Nov, prior 51.8)

TH: CPI (Nov, prior 1.46% y/y, survey 1.9%)

CO: Pres. Santos visits US (to 3 Dec) re bilateral trade

PE: CPI (Nov, prior 3.04%)

CL: Trade balance (Nov, prior +USD240m)

MX: Mfg PMI (Nov, prior 50.2)

BR: HSBC PMI (Nov, prior 50.2), Trade balance (Nov, prior -USD220m)

 

3 Dec

ID: WTO ministerial meeting in Bali

CN: Non-Mfg PMI (prior 56.3)

ZA: CAB (Q3, prior deficit ZAR216bn)

TR: CPI (Nov, prior 7.71% y/y, survey 7.6%)

BR: GDP (Q3, prior 3.3% y/y, survey 2.5%)

 

4 Dec

Opec: Oil production meeting in Vienna

CN: HSBC Svces PMI (Nov, prior 52.6)

KR: US VP Biden visits

CZ: GDP (Q3, prior -1.3% y/y)

PL: NBP MPC decision (survey pause at 2.50%)

RU: CPI (Nov, prior 6.3%)

BR: HSBC Svces PMI, Fifa World Cup Executive committee meeting in Salvador

 

5 Dec

EM: HSBC/Markit EM index

CN: US VP Biden visits (to 6 Dec)

TH: Holiday (King’s Birthday)

KR: GDP-fin. (Q3, prior 2.3% y/y, survey 3.3%)

TW: CPI (Nov, prior 0.64% y/y, survey 0.98%)

PH: CPI (Nov, prior 2.9% y/y)

HU: GDP-fin. (Q3, prior 0.5% y/y)

UK: CPI (Nov, prior -0.1% y/y)

EG: CBE MPC (survey pause at 8.75%)

CO: CPI (Nov, prior 1.8% y/y)

 

6 Dec

MY: Trade balance (Oct, prior surplus MYR 8.7bn)

Africa: Peace and security summit in Paris

ZA: FX reserves (Nov, prior USD 49.7bn)

BR: CPI (Nov, prior 5.84% y/y), Fifa World Cup Final draw in Salvador

CL: CPI (Nov, prior 1.5% y/y)

MX: Banxico MPC (prior 3.50%)

 

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8 Dec (Sunday)

CN: New loans (Nov, prior CNY506bn), Trade balance (Nov, prior surplus USD 31.1bn), Exports (Nov, prior 5.6% y/y)

 

9 Dec

CN: CPI (Nov, prior 3.2% y/y)

CZ: CPI (Nov, prior 0.9% y/y)

RU: Trade balance (Oct, prior surplus USD 15.7bn)

MX: CPI (Nov, prior 3.36% y/y)

 

10 Dec

LK: CBSL MPC (prior 6.50%)

TR: GDP (Q3, prior 4.4% y/y)

RO: Trade balance (Oct, prior deficit EUR413m)

EG: CPI (Nov, prior 10.4% y/y)

HR: Trade balance (Oct, prior deficit HRK 3.9bn), GDP-f (Q3, prior -0.7% y/y)

UK: GDP (Q3, prior -1.3% y/y)

 

11 Dec

MY: IP (Oct, prior 1% y/y)

RO: CPI (Nov, prior 1.88% y/y)

ZA: CPI (Nov, prior 5.5% y/y)

TR: CAB (Oct)

GH: CPI (Nov, prior 13.1% y/y)

 

12 Dec

KR: BOK MPC (2.50%)

ID: BI MPC (7.50%)

PH: BSP MPC (3.50%)

HU: CPI (Nov, prior 0.9% y/y)

IL: Trade balance (Nov, prior deficit USD1.0bn)

RS: CPI (Nov, prior 2.2% y/y), NBS MPC (10.00%)

IN: IP (Oct, prior 2.0% y/y)

MX: IP (Oct, prior -1.6% y/y)

CL: BCCh MPC (4.50%)

PE: BRP MPC (4.00%)

 

13 Dec

UK: NBU MPC (6.50%)

RU: CBR MPC (5.50%)

PL: CPI (Nov, prior 0.8% y/y)

CO: GDP (Q3, prior 2.2% q/q)

AR: CPI (Nov, prior 10.5% y/y)

 

14 Dec (Sat)

HR: CPI (Nov, prior 0.2% y/y)

 

15 Dec (Sun)

IL: CPI (Nov, prior 1.8% y/y)

CL: Run-off election between Bachelet and Matthei

 

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16 Dec

IN: WPI (Nov, prior 7% y/y)

 

17 Dec

SG: Trade balance (Nov, prior surplus SGD 6.7bn)

CZ: CNB MPC

TR: TCMB MPC

HU: MNB MPC

 

18 Dec

MY: CPI (Nov, prior 2.8% y/y)

NG: CPI (Nov, prior 7.8% y/y)

AE: CPI (Nov, prior 1.3% y/y)

 

19 Dec

UK: CAB (Q3, prior –USD1.6bn)

MX: Retail sales (Oct, prior -4% y/y)

CO: GDP (Q3, prior 4.2%)

 

20 Dec

CO: BanRep MPC (3.25%)

AR: IP (Nov, prior -0.5% y/y), GDP (Q3, prior 8.3% y/y), CAB (Q3, prior +USD650m)

 

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23 Dec

HU: CAB (Q3, prior +EUR612m)

SG: CPI (Nov, prior 2% y/y)

IL: BOI MPC (1.00%)

 

26 Dec

SG: IP (Nov, prior 8.0% y/y)

MX: Trade balance (Nov, prior –USD129m)

 

27 Dec

PH: Trade balance (Oct, prior –USD0.67bn)

BR: Budget balance (Nov, prior primary BRL6.2bn)

 

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30 Dec

KR: CAB (Nov, prior +USD9.5bn), IP (Nov)

RS: GDP-f (Q3, prior 0.2% y/y)

ZA: Trade balance (Nov, prior -ZAR12.4bn)

 

1 Jan

KR: CPI (Dec)

 

[...]

 

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April

ID: Legislative elections

 

May

IN: Nationwide elections (due by May)

 

July

ID: Presidential elections 

 

2 Dec

AU: Building permits (Oct, prior 14.4% m/m, survey -5%)

JP: BOJ Gov. Kuroda speaks, US VP Biden visits

ES: Mfg PMI (Nov, prior 50.9, survey 51)

IT: Mfg PMI (Nov, prior 50.7, survey 50.9)

FR: Mfg PMI (Nov, prior 49.1, survey 47.8)

GE: Mfg PMI (Nov, prior 51.7, survey 52.5)

EU: Mfg PMI (Nov, prior 51.3, survey 51.5)

GB: Mfg PMI (Nov, prior 56, survey 56.3) 

US: Fed Bernanke speaks, ISM Mfg (Nov, prior 56.4, survey 55.5)

 

3 Dec

AU: RBA MPC Decision (survey pause at 2.50%)

EU: PPI (Oct, prior -0.9% y/y, survey -1%)

 

4 Dec

AU: GDP (Q3, prior 2.6% y/y, survey 2.5%)

ES: Svces PMI (Nov, prior 49.6, survey 49.7)

IT: Svces PMI (Nov, prior 50.5, survey 51.2)

FR: Svces PMI (Nov, prior 50.9)

GE: Svces PMI (Nov, prior 52.9, survey 54.5)

EU: Markit Composite PMI (Nov, prior 51.9, prior 51.5), GDP-2est. (Q3, prior -0.6% y/y, survey -0.4%)

GB: Svces PMI (Nov, prior 62.5, survey 52)

US: ADP employment (Nov, prior 130k, survey 165k), Trade balance (Oct, prior deficit USD 41.8bn, survey deficit 49.1bn), ISM Non-mfg (Nov, prior 55.4, survey 55), New home sales (Sep, prior 421k, survey 427k)

CA: BOC MPC decision (survey pause at 1.00%)

 

5 Dec

AU: Trade balance (Oct, prior deficit AUD 284m, survey deficit AUD 380m)

NO: NB MPC decision (survey pause at 1.50%)

GB: BOE MPC decision (survey pause at 0.50%, APF GBP375bn)

EU: ECB MPC decision (survey pause at 0.25%)

US: Fed Fisher speaks, IJC (25-29 Nov, prior 316k, survey 320k)

 

6 Dec

CH: CPI (Nov, prior -0.3% y/y, survey -0.1%)

CA: Unemployment rate (Nov, prior 6.9%, survey 7.0%)

US: Fed Evans speaks, NFP (Nov, prior 204k, survey 185k), Unemployment rate (Nov, prior 7.3%, survey 7.2%)

 

7 Dec (Sat)

JP: BOJ Gov. Kuroda speaks

 

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9 Dec

GE: Trade balance (Oct, prior surplus EUR 20.4bn)

GR: GDP (Q3, prior -3.7% y/y, survey -3%)

 

10 Dec

NO: CPI (Nov, prior 2.4% y/y)

GB: IP (Oct, prior 2.2% y/y)

IT: GDP-f (Q3, -2.2% y/y, survey -1.9%)

 

11 Dec

GE: CPI-f (Nov, prior 1.2% y/y)

IS: CBI MPC (6.00%)

 

12 Dec

NZ: RBNZ MPC (2.50%)

FR: CPI (Nov, prior 0.6% y/y -0.1% m/m)

SE: CPI (Nov, prior -0.1% y/y)

CH: SNB MPC (0.00%)

IT: CPI-f (Nov)

EU: IP (Oct, prior 1.1% y/y)

US: Retail sales (Nov, prior 3.9% y/y), IJC (2-6 Dec)

 

13 Dec

JP: IP-f (Oct, prior 5.1% y/y)

 

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16 Dec

EU: Trade balance (Oct, prior surplus EUR 13.1bn)

US: TIC flows (Oct, prior USD25.5bn), IP (Nov, prior 3.2% y/y)

 

17 Dec

SE: Riksbank MPC (1.00%)

GB: CPI (Nov, prior 2.2% y/y), BOE Quarterly Bulletin

EU: CPI-f (Nov, prior 0.7% y/y)

US: Fed FOMC MPC meeting begins (17-18 Dec), CPI (Nov, prior 1% y/y), CAB (Q3, prior deficit USD 98.9bn)

 

18 Dec

NZ: CAB (Q3, prior deficit NZD 2.2bn)

GE: IFO (Dec, prior 109.3), ZEW Econ sentiment (Dec, prior 54.6)

GB: BOE Minutes, Unemployment rate (Oct, prior 7.6%)

EU: ZEW Econ sentiment (Dec, prior 60.2)

US: Fed FOMC MPC meeting concludes (17-18 Dec), FOMC Econ projections, Housing starts (Nov)

 

19 Dec

NZ: GDP (Q3, prior 2.5% y/y)

JP: BOJ MPC (0%)

EU: European Council Meeting (19-20 Dec), CAB (Oct, prior +EUR14bn)

GB: Retail sales ex-fuel (Nov, prior 2.3% y/y)

 

20 Dec

EU: European Council Meeting (19-20 Dec), Mfg PMI (prior 51.5), Svces PMI (prior 50.9)

GE: Mfg PMI (Dec, prior 52.5), Svces PMI (Dec, prior 54.5)

GB: GDP-f (Q3, prior 1.3% y/y), CAB (Q3, prior -GBP13bn)

CA: CPI (Nov, prior 0.7% y/y)

US: GDP-3est (Q3, prior 2.5% q/q)

 

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23 Dec

US: UMich consumer sentiment (Dec, prior 75.1)

 

24 Dec

US: Durable goods (Nov), New home sales (Nov)

 

26 Dec

JP: BOJ MPC (0.00%)

US: IJC (16-20 Dec)

 

27 Dec

JP: CPI (Nov), IP (Nov)

 

Economic + Event Calendar