Executive summary: Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities.
- , we are tactically long S&P volatility and short EUR-JPY. On a strategic basis, we are long German DAX and Malaysian equities, while short Brazilian stocks and US Treasuries.
This week in trade ideas
- : Markets will begin the week digesting weekend events in Washington (government shutdown talks), Germany (SPD convention) and possibly Oman (OPEC-Russia meeting).
- brings the BOJ meeting and outlook report, Philippines GDP and Round Six of Nafta talks.
- features UK jobs data, Eurozone PMIs and a Brazil court ruling on ex-President Lula’s corruption conviction.
- has ECB, Norges Bank and Bank Negara meetings as well as Korea GDP, Germany IFO and New Zealand CPI.
- rounds out the week with Japanese and Canadian inflation, US and UK GDP, US core PCE and a keynote closing speech by President Trump at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
- , on the corporate side, more visibility with respect to US corporate tax savings and capex plans are expected as 89 S&P 500-listed firms report Q4 earnings this week, including Netflix (Mon), J&J and P&G (Tue) as well as Intel and Caterpillar (Thu).
During the week
Full agenda – Week of 22 Jan-18:
Note: Calendar items are filed under the local day but specified times are in Singapore time zone unless otherwise noted.
- EM: Thailand customs trade (1130am), Taiwan export orders (4pm), Mexico unemployment (10pm), Colombia trade (11pm)
- Events: , US Sec Tillerson begins Europe tour (22-27 Jan, London on Mideast/DPRK/Ukraine, Paris, Davos, Warsaw), EZ finance ministers discuss Greece bailout (may shortlist candidates for ECB VP Constancio’s seat), , US VP Pence visits Middle East (22-23 Jan, Egypt, Jordan, Israel)
Brexit EU Withdrawal Bill moves to the House of LordsIMF releases World Economic Outlook
- Companies: UBS, , Halliburton, Axis Bank, Wynn Resorts earnings
- DM: (cons unch 0% 10yr JGB target, -0.1% policy balance rate), Japan all industry activity (1230pm), Japan machine tool orders-fin (2pm), (6pm), EZ consumer confidence-actual (11pm)
Japan BOJ MPC and Quarterly Outlook reportGermany ZEW current situation/expectations survey
- EM: (10am), Singapore CPI (1pm), Taiwan IP (4pm), (7pm), Mexico IGAE econ activity (10pm), Russia IP, Nigeria CBN MPC (curr 14.00%), Poland unemployment, Argentina BCRA MPC (curr 28.00% 7dr), Argentina trade balance (3am)
Philippines GDPBrazil IBGE-15 CPI
- Speakers: Riksbank Ingves in open hearing (4pm, on financial stability), Fed Evans
- Events: (23-26 Jan, Davos), Nafta sixth round talks (23-28 Jan, Montreal), ASEAN-India Summit (New Delhi), US Senate confirmation hearing for Fed nominee Goodfriend
World Economic Forum
- Commodities: API weekly US oil inventory
- Companies: , Verizon, Texas Instruments, Canadian National Railway, Capital One, Kimberly-Clark, State Street earnings
Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble
- DM: Australia Westpac leading index (730am), Japan trade (750am), Japan PMI mfg (830am), France PMI (4pm), (430pm), EZ PMI (5pm), (530pm, prior 2.3% claimant count, 5.9k jobless claims change, 4.3% 3mth unemployment rate), US Markit PMI (1045pm), US existing home sales (11pm)
Germany PMIUK labour
- EM: Malaysia CPI (12pm), (4pm), Czech confidence (4pm), Mexico bi-weekly CPI (10pm), Israel BOI MPC, (3am)
South Africa CPIArgentina economic activity
- Speakers: Riksbank Floden (630pm)
- Events: (question of whether it will be upheld)
Brazil ex-pres. Lula da Silva corruption conviction hearing
- Commodities: EIA crude oil inventory report
- Companies: Novartis, Comcast, GE, United Technologies, Abbott Labs, General Dynamics, Las Vegas Sands, Ford Motor earnings
- DM: (545am, Q4), Germany GfK consumer confid (3pm), Sweden economic tendency (4pm), Sweden unemployment rate (430pm), Sweden PPI (430pm), (5pm), (5pm), (845pm, cons unch 0% refi rate, 0.25% marginal lending, -0.40% deposit facility), US wholesale inventories (930pm), (930pm), US new home sales (11pm), US leading index (11pm)
New Zealand CPINorges Bank MPCGermany IFO surveyECB MPCCanada retails
- EM: (7am), (3pm, curr 3.00% OPR), Russia unemployment (9pm), Russia retails (9pm), Mexico retails (10pm)
Korea GDPMalaysia BNM MPC
- Speakers: (930pm)
ECB Draghi press conference
- Events: Brazil ex-pres. Lula da Silva expected to launch bid for presidency (reported 15 Jan)
- Companies: U.S. International Trade Commission rules on Bombardier/Boeing case. , LVMH, 3M, Union Pacific, , Diageo, Starbucks, Celgene, Biogen, Raytheon, Nordea, SK Hynix earnings.
- DM: (730am, prior 0.6% yoy national headline, 0.9% ex-fresh food), (750am), France consumer confidence (345pm), Sweden household spending (430pm), Sweden retails (430pm), (530pm), (930pm), (930pm), (930pm)
Japan CPIJapan BOJ minutesUK GDP-actualCanada CPIUS durable goodsUS core PCE-Q4 actual
- EM: China industrial profits (930am), Singapore unemployment (1030am), Singapore IP (1pm), Brazil FDI (830pm)
- Speakers: (keynote speech, Davos), BOJ Kuroda (Davos), IMF Lagarde (Davos), ECB Coeure (6pm), BOE Carney (10pm, Davos)
- Events: (Pres. Milos Zeman vs pro-EU Jiri Drahos, 26-27 Jan), UN-backed Syria peace talks (Vienna), Argentina Macri meets Macron
Czech presidential runoff election
- Commodities: Baker Hughes US rig count (2am), ICE/CFTC weekly traders report (~2am/430am)
- Companies: Abbvie, Honeywell, Nextera, Colgate-Palmolive, Fanuc earnings
- Ratings: Azerbaijan (S&P)
Visual of the Week: