Reports I've seen this morning had more of a negative skew - with greater emphasis on Hammond's significant growth forecast revisions and disappointing stimulus. This plus moderate risk-off tone in markets going into the European open is adding pressure to GBP.
Growth forecast cuts:
- 2017 from 2% to 1.5% (in line with Bloomberg consensus)
- 2018 from 1.6% to 1.4% (Bloomberg consensus: 1.4%)
- 2019 from 1.7% to 1.3% (now sub-Bloomberg consensus: 1.6%).
- Govt plans capital gains tax on foreign buyers of commercial property, potentially disrupting flow into London office buildings
<- GBP negative
- Another proposal abolishes stamp duty for 1st-time home buyers up to 300k pounds underwhelmed, with home-builder stocks tumbling